[Smurf-316]

October 30, 2007
Third Party Run Would Kill GOP in '08

The upcoming presidential election was never going to be an easy one for the Republicans to win. As "time for change" fever takes over, it's difficult to succeed a popular incumbent, much less one as reviled as President Bush.
Still, not that long ago, things looked hopeful for the GOP. The Democrats are likely to choose Hillary Clinton, a candidate with some of the highest negative ratings of any non-incumbent nominee in modern presidential politics. What's more, there's a decent chance the Republicans will nominate someone from outside the Sun Belt, who would have unusual appeal in the Democratic base. That's why the margin is much closer when Rudy Giuliani runs head-to-head with Clinton than it is in polls that pit an unnamed Democrat against an unnamed Republican.
But events are conspiring to eviscerate any chance the Republicans have of winning next year. Simply put, the party is fissuring, so if three or four -- not two -- major candidates end up on the fall ballot, the Democrats will win in a walk.

Every 12 years or so, a new independent or third-party candidate gains momentum during an election cycle. Almost always, when these candidacies arise, it's the incumbent party that loses the election. In 2000 with Ralph Nader, in 1992 with H. Ross Perot, in 1980 with John Anderson, in 1968 with George Wallace, and on back through modern-American political history, the lesson of third parties is twofold: they never win and, because their ire is often directed at the status quo -- thus the party holding power -- they damage the candidate of the incumbent party.

[Smurf-316]

Ron Paul just might be that third candidate that kills the republicans.

[TheKing]

The previous example of a third party candidate shows it would hurt the Republicans, but I don't think that's the case with Ron Paul.

The biggest reason, Ron Paul is not in a third party. He's running as a republican. At this point, he's either going to get the nomination, or he's not. If he switches to independent, then maybe it might hurt the GOP. But I think it's more likely to hurt the DIMS this time. The DIMS have a 11% approval rating in Congress. If Hillary gets the nomination, that will alienate even more DEMocrats and moderates. Moderates don't trust Hillary, and liberal DIMS hate her because of her war vote. Hillary is the Democrat Gulianni. She will polarize the DEMocrat party.

If Ron Paul starts an independent campaign a lot of the code pink types are going to go with Ron Paul.

[hrdman2luv]

What is going to hurt the GOP is if Rudy or Romney gets the nomination. And according to Fox news, Huckleberry has alot of baggage as well. As the NEOCONS dwell in their Iraq mistakes and refuse to open their eyes to what the American people want, their hopes of winning anything in 08 is dwindling fast.
Ron Paul said it best during the debates, "the GOP is just saving face". They don't want to admit they were wrong. Karl Roves strategy of running on the war is over, but a most of the GOP candidates are still trying to run on it.
Ron Paul is their only hope. And if any other candidate for the GOP gets the nomination, it will be a democrat running this country.(into the ground)

Having the Demoquacks running the white house and the congress will be just as bad as the NEOCONS. You can't have one party in total control. It's a disaster waiting to happen.

[BIGJ]

Senator Barack H. Obama will be the Next President of these United States.

[WiseOne]

Oh yea, IF Ron Paul were to run as an Independent in 2008, Hillary Clinton would win for sure...

[BIGJ]

Originally Posted by WiseOne

Oh yea, IF Ron Paul were to run as an Independent in 2008, Hillary Clinton would win for sure...

Hillary Clinton will never get the Democratic nod and she will not be the Vice-Presidential candidate either.

[TheKing]

BigJ - You're going to hate this, but you and I think a lot a like. lol

Sing with me:

Ebony and Ivory live together in perfect harmony, side by side on my piano keyboard, oh lord why can't we???

[BIGJ]

Originally Posted by TheKing

BigJ - You're going to hate this, but you and I think a lot a like. lol

Sing with me:

Ebony and Ivory live together in perfect harmony, side by side on my piano keyboard, oh lord why can't we???

OMG, how in the world you and I are alike? You know where I stand. You know I am a Democrat.

[WiseOne]

I HOPE you are both right and Hillary Clinton will not get the nod. I'll get on my knees and grovel before the one who made me to take this beast from the elections and send her back to Arkansas with a Razorback Pig blanket slung over her shoulder.